Braves' home-field advantage in World Series only matters if they get there
The biggest challenge for Atlanta in October might be escaping a best-of-five NLDS.
Good morning and happy Friday. Seize the weekend like Ronald Acuña Jr. seized second base after No. 70.
Let’s get right to it.
What are the Braves doing today?
They open their final series of the regular season with the first of three games against the Nationals at Truist Park. No matter what happens, the Braves have secured home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs and the World Series.
Today in Braves history
Sept. 29, 1992: Charlie Leibrandt pitches a complete game shutout, blanking the Giants 6-0 as the Braves clinch their second straight NL West title. Ron Gant paces Atlanta with three hits, including a home run. The Braves go on to win the division by eight games, finishing 98-64.
The Big Thing: Home-field advantage in World Series makes NLDS all the more crucial for Braves
ATLANTA — When asked in recent days about the Braves securing home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs, manager Brian Snitker has always answered with some variation of, “It’ll be nice if we make it that far.”
That may sound like pessimism or a lack of confidence in his team, but it’s really just the truth — because a best-of-five division series is a worrisome proposition for any team.
Anything can happen. The margin for error is super-slim. On-paper advantages don’t seem to matter. Anyone can beat anyone. You think the postseason is random in general? Well, the division series can be especially random, making it a source of both optimism and terror.
That’s why the NLDS will arguably be the most important series the Braves play in 2023. You might even say that winning the division series is the biggest key to Atlanta winning another championship.
To borrow from Snitker’s NLCS observation, clinching home-field advantage through the World Series, as the Braves did with a win Thursday against the Cubs, is only a big deal if they’re able to use it. In a five-game series, the Braves are just as vulnerable as anyone, especially given the banged-up starting rotation. But should they advance to the best-of-seven NLCS, they become much tougher to beat — especially with home-field advantage. The same goes for the World Series.
There’s just so much more room for error in a best-of-seven. It allows a team to have three bad days within a week and still win a championship. Three bad days in the NLDS and you’re watching the rest of the postseason from your couch.
With home-field advantage in a longer series, the popular X-factors can come into play: sleeping in your own bed, relaxing around friends and family, the general familiarity of home. In theory, it should present a literal huge advantage.
But, interestingly, having home-field advantage in the NLCS or World Series has been a mixed bag for teams in recent years. Last season, the Padres had home-field advantage against the Phillies in the NLCS but lost in five games. The Cardinals had it in 2019 and were swept by the Nationals. The Brewers had it in 2018 and lost to the Dodgers.
The 2021 Astros had home-field advantage in the World Series but, as you know, lost to the Braves in six games. The Astros also had it in the 2019 World Series but lost in seven games to the Nationals. In fact, the home team lost every game in the 2019 World Series — the first time that had ever happened.
The 2016 Indians had home-field in the World Series but lost to the Cubs in seven. The next year, the Dodgers had home-field but lost in seven to the Astros.
You get the idea. It’s just more evidence that nothing means anything in baseball.
Still, every team wants home-field advantage. In the postseason, you take any edge you can get.
Despite the randomness of October, the more games that are played, the more the better teams have a chance to shine through. And over the course of the 2023 season, the Braves have shown themselves to be the best team in baseball.
If they survive the NLDS, they’ll have an excellent chance to prove it officially.
Braves are scheduled for a hot October (if you believe in patterns)
Going by their pattern of having a great month followed by a mediocre month, the Braves are scheduled for a dandy October. Look at the breakdown:
March/April: 18-9
May: 15-14
June: 21-4
July: 13-10
August: 21-8
September: 15-11 so far (and, yes, it’s high-end mediocre, but still)
Of course, this means nothing in reality. But it makes good newsletter fodder.
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Thanks for reading. Enjoy the weekend. See you Monday.