A few random NLDS thoughts and tidbits ahead of Braves-Phillies Game 3
The NLDS has been a wild ride for Atlanta since 1995.
Today’s a big day, Braves fans. How are you feeling? Is your body ready for a laid-back, relaxing late afternoon of October baseball? I kid.
But seriously, Game 3 against the Phillies could very well be the linchpin of the series, as the winner of Game 3 goes on to win in a best-of-five 72 percent of the time. That’s a heavy advantage, but far from a guarantee. Heck, a look at recent Braves NLDS history alone will tell you that a Game 3 win is not necessarily a reason to celebrate. But we won’t go there (until later).
No matter what happens today, there’s still at least one more game in the series. And Yogi Berra really was right about the “it’s not over” thing.
But because we’re still swimming in the NLDS vibe, I thought I’d spend today’s newsletter just offering some thoughts, memories and other tidbits about the Braves’ history in the division series.
It’s really been a tale of three eras when it comes to Atlanta and the NLDS:
1) The Golden Years (1995-1999)
2) The Dark Ages (2000-2019)
3) A New Hope (2020-present)
I won’t cover every aspect of the eras, but let’s just say there’s been a lot of good, a lot of bad and maybe a dollop of mediocrity, depending on how the 2023 NLDS shakes out.
With that in mind, here are some stream-of-consciousness(ish) thoughts.
Remember when the NLDS was just a formality for the Braves?
It may seem hard to believe, but the division series used to be almost completely stress-free for the Braves and their fans.
From their first one in 1995 through their last NLDS of the ‘90s, the Braves went 15-2 in division series games. That included three straight sweeps from 1996 to 1998. I guess that’s what happens when you have three in-their-prime Hall of Famers headlining your rotation.
Funnily enough, the only of those ‘90s division series that presented any real challenge were the first one and the last one. In 1995, the Braves played the 2-year-old Rockies, who made the playoffs as a wild card. For some reason, MLB thought it would be a good idea to let the ‘95 wild-card teams host the first two games, then play the final three at the home of the division winner — a crazy-unfair and potentially disastrous set-up for the higher seed, but I guess MLB was hoping for underdog drama. And that’s what they got in the first two games of Braves-Rockies.
Games 1 and 2 in Colorado were back-and-forth roller coaster rides that the Braves managed to win, but that the Rockies could’ve easily won. In fact, because Colorado had base runners all over the place, just two more hits from the Rockies might’ve been the difference between the Braves winning the 1995 World Series and getting swept in the first round.
After the Rockies took Game 3 in extra innings in Atlanta, the Braves won Game 4 by a 10-4 score to take the series. But even that game required them coming back from a three-run deficit early. So there was an unusual amount of stress for a four-game series.
In 1999, the Braves lost Game 1 to the Astros at home, then won three straight. But within those three wins was a very tight Game 3 in Houston that went 12 innings and featured the famous play in which Walt Weiss and his glove, nicknamed “The Creature,” saved the Braves in a bases-loaded, no-out, infield-in situation in the 10th inning to help preserve a tie and send the game to extras. The Braves eventually won 5-3. But if that ball gets by Weiss and the Astros go up 2-1 in the series, who knows how things turn out?
The decisive Game 4 wasn’t as quite close as the 7-5 score might indicate, as the Braves led 7-0 before Houston finally scored a run in the seventh inning. But then a four-run eighth for Houston made things interesting when they brought the tying run to the plate. There was drama in the ninth, too. On the last play of the game, Ken Caminiti, who represented the tying run and already had three homers in the series, took a John Rocker pitch to the warning track in right center for the final out — concluding last MLB game ever at the Astrodome.
Aside from the ‘95 and ‘99 series, it was smooth sailing for the Braves in the NLDS. Here’s a crazy stat about those sweeps in 1996, 1997 and 1998: In those nine games, the Braves trailed in only two of them. The deficits? 1-0 (twice) and 2-1.
If you’re worried about a Bryce Elder start in Game 3, just consider this
As of this writing, we don’t know yet who will start Game 3 for the Braves. But I’d bet that Bryce Elder will pitch at some point in the game, even if he doesn’t start.
Elder, of course, has not been good lately. Over his last five starts of the regular season, he had a 5.86 ERA with an opponent OPS of .860. He also hasn’t pitched since Sept. 26. So it’s understandable that Braves fans would be fearful of what might happen if he gets the call.
But look at it this way: Think back to The Dark Ages of Atlanta NLDS history. Imagine if an opponent started an unproven and/or struggling pitcher against the Braves at any point in a division series. What would you expect to happen? You know exactly what you’d expect to happen: You’d expect the unproven and/or formerly struggling pitcher to shut down the Braves. Because of course.
I wrote that mostly as a joke because that scenario only really happened a couple of times in those 19 years of The Dark Ages. It only seemed like it happened every year. I was actually surprised how infrequently it happened when I looked it up.
The best example was probably the Livan Hernandez game. No, not that one. The other one. The one from the 2002 NLDS against the Giants. The Braves were up 2-1 in the series with a chance to close things out in San Francisco in Game 4. But Hernandez, who led the NL with 16 losses that year and had allowed at least four runs in seven of his last 12 starts — including three outings of at least six runs — held Atlanta to three runs over 8.1 innings as the Giants tagged Tom Glavine for seven runs and won 8-3. San Francisco then won Game 5 in Atlanta to take the series.
There was also the time in the 2004 NLDS when Brandon Backe, who only made nine starts all season for the Astros, and who allowed opponents an .806 OPS as a starter, held the Braves to two runs in six innings in Game 3 as Houston won 8-5 to take a 2-1 lead in the series. The Braves eventually lost in five games.
The point is, weird things happen with pitching in the postseason. Formerly struggling guys can come up big out of nowhere. Some guys are just able to find that extra something when it matters most.
This doesn’t mean that Bryce Elder will/would mow down the Phillies, but it does mean that maybe we shouldn’t be surprised if he does.
For informational purposes only
The Braves have played 10 division series in the wild-card era in which they entered Game 3 tied 1-1. They’re 4-6 in those Game 3s and they’re 3-7 in those series.
Here’s the breakdown.
1999 NLDS: Won Game 3, won series vs. Astros
2002 NLDS: Won Game 3, lost series vs. Giants
2003 NLDS: Lost Game 3, lost series vs. Cubs
2004 NLDS: Lost Game 3, lost series vs. Astros
2005 NLDS: Lost Game 3, lost series vs. Astros
2010 NLDS: Lost Game 3, lost series vs. Giants
2013 NLDS: Lost Game 3, lost series vs. Dodgers
2019 NLDS: Won Game 3, lost series vs. Cardinals
2021 NLDS: Won Game 3, won series vs. Brewers
2022 NLDS: Lost Game 3, lost series vs. Phillies
Please note: None of this has any bearing on the 2023 NLDS.
How will this era end?
We’re only in Year 4 of the A New Hope era, so it’s too early to draw conclusions about its ultimate personality. But the Braves have already won two division series in this era, which is more than they won in the entirety of The Dark Ages. Not to mention that they won the literal World Series two years ago. So in that respect, this era defeats The Dark Ages no matter what happens over the next few years.
But this series against the Phillies still feels like it could go a long way toward determining the identity of this period. A series win and the Braves will firmly be on a path toward a potential dynasty. A loss, especially coming after last season’s loss, and these Braves might start to develop a reputation of their own, one that’s similar to those Dark Ages squads that failed to win a playoff series for 19 years.
But I don’t think that’s likely to happen. This era still seems pretty open ended, regardless of how the 2023 NLDS turns out. This group is more talented than a lot of those old Braves teams, and it’ll have its core around for a long time. Plus, this version of the team is smart in a modern way — from the front office to the dugout — and isn’t obsessed with the buttoned-down and business-like “Braves Way,” which I think bore at least some (but probably a lot) of responsibility for the team’s early exits back in the day. But that’s a newsletter for another day.
Thanks for reading. See you Friday.